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<H3></H3></TD></TR> <TR> <TD align=right width=346><A href="http://ducatiukracing.com/" target=_blank>煤炭资讯¾|?/A></TD> <TD width=382>2006-1-10 13:41:30    <A href="http://ducatiukracing.com/MroeNews.aspx">煤市分析</A></TD></TR> <TR> <TD colSpan=2 class="newsContent"> <!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN" > <HTML> <HEAD> <meta http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html;charset=gb2312" /> <title>煤电(sh¨´)双方胶着声音很不协调

煤电(sh¨´)双方胶着声音很不协调

06--1--10

煤炭订货会至今达成协议者寥寥，ä»äh ¼èµ°åŠ¿ž®šä¸æ˜Žäº†
　　è‡??xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" />1æœ?SPAN lang=EN-US>1æ—?/st1:chsdate>在济南召开çš?SPAN lang=EN-US>â€?006òq´å…¨å›½é‡ç‚¹ç…¤ç‚­äñ”˜qéœ€è¡”接ä¼?SPAN lang=EN-US>â€?/SPAN>是电(sh¨´)煤走向市场化的拐炏V€‚然而，ç”׃ºŽä¾›éœ€åŒæ–¹åœ¨ä­h(hu¨¢n)æ ég¸Šéš¾ä»¥è¾¾æˆä¸€è‡ß_¼Œä¸€ç›´å¤„于胶着状态，½{¾è®¢åˆåŒè¾ƒå°‘ã€?/FONT>
　　市场普遍认äØ“åQŒåˆåŒç…¤ä»äh ¼å‘市åœÞZ­h(hu¨¢n)æ ÆD¶‹˜q‘是必然­‘‹åŠ¿åQŒè¿™æ˜¯ç”±å®è§‚政策导向、供需力量å¯ÒŽ(gu¨©)¯”、煤价高位运行等因素军_®šçš„。这¿Uä­h(hu¨¢n)æ ég¸Šæ¶¨ï¼Œå¯¹äºŽç…¤ç‚­¾cÖM¸Šå¸‚å…¬åæ€¸­åŽŸæ¥åˆåŒç…¤æ‰€å æ¯”例较大的企业åQŒå°†æ˜‘Ö¾—æ›´äؓ有利åQŒå¦‚兖州煤业ã€?/FONT>
　　煤炭ä»äh ¼é€æ­¥å¸‚场åŒ?/B>
　　十一五计划提å‡ø™¦å»ø™®¾èµ„源节约型社会，重要途径之一ž®±æ˜¯˜qç”¨å¸‚场化手ŒDµè°ƒèŠ‚资源品使用ä»äh ¼ã€?/FONT>
　　æ ÒŽ(gu¨©)®ç›¸å…³ç ”究åQ?SPAN lang=EN-US>2006òq´å›½å†…煤炭需求量预计ä¸?SPAN lang=EN-US>20.86亿吨åQŒåŒæ¯”增åŠ?SPAN lang=EN-US>1.45亿吨åQŒå¢žé•?SPAN lang=EN-US>7.48%åQ›å¢žé€Ÿè¾ƒ2005òq´è¿›ä¸€æ­¥è¶‹¾~“，˜qœä½Žäº?SPAN lang=EN-US>GDP增长速度。煤炭æ€ÖMñ”量增速也ž®†ç‘ô¾l­å‡¾~“，预计æ€ÖMñ”量将辑ֈ°21.6亿吨åQŒåŒæ¯”增é•?SPAN lang=EN-US>4.85%ã€?/FONT>
　　在这¿Uä¾›éœ€èƒ½å¤ŸåŸºæœ¬è¾‘Öˆ°òqŒ™¡¡çš„情况下åQŒä»Šòq´è“våQŒå‘改委宣布取消对电(sh¨´)ç…¤ä­h(hu¨¢n)格的òq²é¢„åQŒä¸å†ç›´æŽ¥å¹²æ¶‰ä¼ä¸šç”Ÿäº§ã€ç»è¥ã€è®¢è´§ï¼Œè€Œæ­¤å‰æˆ‘国合同煤和市场煤ä»äh ¼ä¸€èˆ¬æ¯å¨ç›¸å·?SPAN lang=EN-US>60-100å…ƒã€?/FONT>
　　ç”?sh¨´)力企业希æœ?SPAN lang=EN-US>â€?/SPAN>双轨åˆ?SPAN lang=EN-US>â€?/SPAN>带来的低于市åœÞZ­h(hu¨¢n)的电(sh¨´)煤能长期存在下去åQŒä½†˜q‘年频频发生的煤矿事故，已揭½Cºå‡ºæˆ‘国煤炭业过åŽÕd®‰å…¨è´¹ç”¨çš„投入不èƒöåQŒçŽ°åœ¨ä¸ž®‘煤炭类上市公司均加大了˜q™æ–¹é¢çš„支出åQŒå¦‚G郑煤ç”?sh¨´)å·²ž®†å¨ç…¤å®‰å…¨è´¹ç”¨æå‡è‡?SPAN lang=EN-US>30å…ƒã€?/FONT>
　　据æ?zh¨¨n)‰åQŒè¿™‹Æ¡ä¼šè®®æ›´æå‡ºäº?SPAN lang=EN-US>â€?/SPAN>煤炭生äñ”¾lè¥å®Œå…¨æˆæœ¬â€?/SPAN>的新概念åQŒå³ç…¤ç‚­ç”Ÿäñ”的成本不仅包括传¾lŸçš„直接生äñ”成本åQŒè¿˜åŒ…括安全成本、环保成本、资源购买成本、可持箋发展成本、退出成本等。上˜q°å› ç´ éƒ½å†›_®šäº†ç…¤ä»ïLš„高位˜qè¡Œã€?/FONT>
　　渤æ“v证券李柏认äØ“åQŒç”µ(sh¨´)ç…¤ä­h(hu¨¢n)格放开后，计划煤ä­h(hu¨¢n)格存在回归市场煤ä»ïLš„动力åQŒä½†ç”׃ºŽä¸€æ–šw¢2006òq´ç…¤ç‚­ä¾›éœ€å½¢åŠ¿ç›¸å¯¹è¾ƒäØ“¾~“å’ŒåQŒé™åˆ¶äº†è®¡åˆ’煤上涨空é—ß_¼›å¦ä¸€æ–šw¢åQŒå®žè´¨ä¸Šå›½å®¶òq¶æœªå®Œå…¨æ”‘Ö¼€å¯¹ç”µ(sh¨´)ç…¤ä­h(hu¨¢n)格的½Ž¡åˆ¶åQŒä»…是在½E›_®šå‰æä¸‹çš„取消òq²é¢„措施åQŒå›½å®¶ä¿ç•™ç€æ—¶åˆ»å¯åŠ¨æŽ§åˆ¶òq²é¢„的权利；而且作äؓ长期大宗合同的计划煤åQŒç›¸å¯¹å¸‚场煤也应å…ähœ‰ä¸€å®šçš„折ä­h(hu¨¢n)比例。因此，奚w¢„计电(sh¨´)ç…¤ä­h(hu¨¢n)æ ÆD™½æœ‰æ‰€æå‡åQŒä½†òq…度不大åQŒä¼°è®¡åœ¨10%左右ã€?/FONT>
　　煤电(sh¨´)企业影响不一
　　有用煤企业在煤炭会上表示åQŒç…¤ç‚­æˆæœ¬å åˆîCº†å‘电(sh¨´)成本çš?SPAN lang=EN-US>70%以上åQŒå¦‚果煤价大òq…上涨，ž®†ç»™ä»–们带来致命影响。但也有分析人士认äØ“åQŒåˆåŒç…¤ä»äh ¼çš„上涨对整个ç”?sh¨´)力行业成本影响较小åQŒè€Œä¸”˜q˜å¯èƒ½ä¿ƒå‘第二次煤电(sh¨´)联动的实施，更加削弱了对ç”?sh¨´)力行业盈利能力的媄响ã€?/FONT>
　　业内人士表示åQŒåˆåŒç…¤æœ€¾lˆç¡®å®šçš„ä»äh ¼å¯¹å„家用煤公司的影响åQŒéœ€è¦å…·ä½“情况具体分析，因äؓ各个ç”?sh¨´)厂的煤炭来源比例是有所差别的，如原来ä‹É用合同煤较多的企业可能受此次调ä­h(hu¨¢n)的媄响相对就会大一些，如华能国际、华ç”?sh¨´)国际、国ç”üc€ç²¤ç”?sh¨´)力½{‰ã€‚而以往ç”?sh¨´)厂的用煤安排也是紧张的时候，用市场煤比较多，宽松的时候，用合同煤比较多ã€?/FONT>
　　与电(sh¨´)力企业相对的是煤炭企业的情况åQŒå¯¹äºŽç…¤ç‚­ä¸Šå¸‚公司来è¯ß_¼ŒåˆåŒç”늅¤æ¯”例较大的企业将受益较大åQŒæƒ…况较为突出的是兖州煤业ã€?/FONT>
　　兖州煤业斚w¢è¡¨ç¤ºåQŒå…¶åˆåŒç…¤åœ¨ç”늅¤ä¸­æ‰€å æ¯”例略低于40%åQŒè€Œæˆªæ­¢ç›®å‰ï¼Œåœ¨æ­¤‹Æ¡ç…¤ç‚­ä¼šä¸Šå…¶ž®šæ— åˆåŒ½{¾è®¢æ–šw¢çš„消息ã€?/FONT>
　　李柏认äØ“åQŒè®¡åˆ’煤在电(sh¨´)煤中所占比例约ä¸?SPAN lang=EN-US>20%左右åQŒåœ¨ç…¤ç‚­æ€»é‡ä¸­æ¯”例较?y¨­u)®ï¼Œå› æ­¤åœ¨è®¡åˆ’ç”?sh¨´)ç…¤ä­h(hu¨¢n)æ ég¸Šæ¶?SPAN lang=EN-US>10%的预期下åQŒå¯¹æ•´ä¸ªç…¤ç‚­è¡Œä¸šä¸šç‡W影响也不大ã€?SPAN lang=EN-US>

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