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BORDER-BOTTOM: #b0cfee 1px solid"> <TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=10 width=955 border=0> <TBODY> <TR> <TD align=middle colSpan=2> <H3></H3></TD></TR> <TR> <TD align=middle colSpan=2> <H2>煤炭行业Q今q出口煤炭h(hun)格将基本E_</H2></TD></TR> <TR> <TD align=middle colSpan=2> <H3></H3></TD></TR> <TR> <TD align=right width=346><A href="http://ducatiukracing.com/" target=_blank>煤炭资讯|?/A></TD> <TD width=382>2007-1-20 9:03:20    <A href="http://ducatiukracing.com/MroeNews.aspx">煤市分析</A></TD></TR> <TR> <TD colSpan=2 class="newsContent"> <!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN" > <HTML> <HEAD> <meta http-equiv=Content-Type content="text/html;charset=gb2312" /> <title>煤炭行业Q今q出口煤炭h(hun)格将基本E_

煤炭行业Q今q出口煤炭h(hun)格将基本E_


07--1--20

中金公司

张琚?/SPAN>

内容提要

煤炭市场l箋向好Q秦皇岛hl箋上涨?/SPAN>

2007q出口煤炭h(hun)格可能基本稳定?/SPAN>

我们的观点:(x)

2007q的W二周,煤炭h持箋走高。上周全各国各主要港口各煤种h上涨5~15?SPAN lang=EN-US>/吨。部分地Z别煤U因供需紧张Qh(hun)格出C更大q度的增ѝ本月初在桂林召开?SPAN lang=EN-US>2007q全国煤炭q需衔接合同汇M(x)议在上周末也已经接近֣Q各大煤炭供求方对于市场化后的电(sh)煤的h谈判也基本达成一致。据(zhn),截止??xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" />1?SPAN lang=EN-US>15?/st1:chsdate>中午Q本ơ会(x)议的合同汇ȝ录入总量已经过?SPAN lang=EN-US>12亿吨Q其中跨省区q力重点合同量达10亿吨左右Q超q国?SPAN lang=EN-US>7.38亿吨的调控目标近36%。煤炭公司在今年的电(sh)煤谈判中一直处于有利的C。截止到上周末,p大同优؜的^仓均价ؓ(f)470?SPAN lang=EN-US>/吨,比一个季度前增长?SPAN lang=EN-US>12%(2003q和2005q第四季度煤价只?SPAN lang=EN-US>2.04%?SPAN lang=EN-US>1.84%的涨q?SPAN lang=EN-US>)。这ơ煤的涨仯l不仅仅是因为季节性的因素Q而更多的反映了在国内强势的煤炭需求下늅合同谈判后的涨h(hun)q度出了之前的预期。M看来Q五大电(sh)力集团电(sh)煤合同已l基本签订完毕,除个别企业和煤质不同之外Q电(sh)煤h(hun)格普遍上?SPAN lang=EN-US>30?SPAN lang=EN-US>/吨左叟뀂神华集团下水煤涨约26?SPAN lang=EN-US>/吨,大同煤业集团车板hU?SPAN lang=EN-US>40?SPAN lang=EN-US>/吨。不隄出,目前在运力不能迅速提高的前提下,q力之争也将成ؓ(f)2007q被谈论的新主题。而日后的煤h(hun)波动也必然会(x)受到q力瓉因素的媄响?/SPAN>

库存斚wQ秦皇岛存煤截止?SPAN lang=EN-US>1?SPAN lang=EN-US>15日达?SPAN lang=EN-US>453.9万吨Q比一个星期前仅上升了0.4%Q供求仍然趋紧。各大电(sh)厂的煤存在目前用?sh)高峰时期持l保持低位。供l方面的不确定因素在一定程度上也放大了2007q用煤用甉|季趋紧的供求关系?SPAN lang=EN-US>2006q全q_(d)全国已经关闭煤矿篏计达5931处,国家q一步计划在2007q上半年再关?SPAN lang=EN-US>2652处。在节能降耗的大前提下Q国家会(x)?SPAN lang=EN-US>2007q进一步推q淘CW合煤炭产业政策、布局不合理、破坏资源、污染环境等16U煤矿;据了解,对已定要关闭的矿井Q春节前要再l织关闭一批,q对节前的煤炭供l会(x)产生一定的影响Q进一步推高部分地区的煤炭h?/SPAN>

q期市场回顾

步入2007q_(d)煤炭市场仍然保持着较ؓ(f)z跃的运行态势Q煤炭h(hun)格l走高。秦皇岛港煤炭h(hun)g保持着节前上涨的势_(d)本周港口各煤Uh(hun)格再上涨5~15?SPAN lang=EN-US>/吨,其中6000大卡以上大同优؜q仓L(fng)前已辑ֈ515-525?SPAN lang=EN-US>/吨。东北、华北精煤市Z需紧张Q用户库存有所回落Q拉动了_h上涨。随着春节的(f)q,煤、电(sh)消费逐渐步入高峰期,煤炭需求将q一步加大,预计未来一D|间内煤炭h仍将保持上行势?/SPAN>

【秦皇岛港】:(x)本周U皇岛港煤炭h再次出现全面上扬Q?SPAN lang=EN-US>6000大卡以上大同优؜q仓价上?SPAN lang=EN-US>15?SPAN lang=EN-US>/吨;5500大卡p优؜上涨10?SPAN lang=EN-US>/吨;5000大卡p大؜上涨10?SPAN lang=EN-US>/吨;4500大卡普通؜煤上?SPAN lang=EN-US>8?SPAN lang=EN-US>/吨;4000大卡普通؜煤上?SPAN lang=EN-US>7?SPAN lang=EN-US>/吨?/SPAN>

【华东地区】:(x)华东地区煤炭市场仍旧较ؓ(f)z跃Q山东淄博地?SPAN lang=EN-US>6800大卡贫瘦_出矿价上?SPAN lang=EN-US>13?SPAN lang=EN-US>/吨;6600大气块煤出矿价上?SPAN lang=EN-US>15?SPAN lang=EN-US>/吨;5000大卡气؜煤出矿h(hun)上涨40?SPAN lang=EN-US>/吨。江苏万寨港各煤U^仓h(hun)g在小q攀升,各煤U涨q在5-30?SPAN lang=EN-US>/吨。安徽合肥地区受铁\q输紧张?qing)季节因素的影响Q煤L(fng)中有升?/SPAN>

【华北地区】:(x)本周华北地区_市场形势较好Q精煤h(hun)格有所上涨。其中,沛_南部地区ȝ煤、肥煤?SPAN lang=EN-US>1/3焦煤上调的幅度在5~10?SPAN lang=EN-US>/吨。山西(f)汑֜区黏l度?SPAN lang=EN-US>85以上的主焦精煤含E出厂h(hun)也出?SPAN lang=EN-US>10?SPAN lang=EN-US>/吨的涨幅?/SPAN>

【东北地区】:(x)目前东北地区_市场供需偏紧Q其中主焦精煤、肥_市场供不应求。本周黑龙江鸡西和七台河地区10U焦煤、肥煤R板含Eh(hun)分别上涨30?SPAN lang=EN-US>/吨?/SPAN>

【中南地区】:(x)沛_、河北以?qing)湖南地区煤价上扬幅度?SPAN lang=EN-US>5-35?SPAN lang=EN-US>/吨,但限于部分煤U?/SPAN>

【西北地区】:(x)本周西北地区煤炭市场q行较ؓ(f)q稳Q未出现大的波动?/SPAN>

西南地区】:(x)本周西南地区煤炭市场未出现大的L动?/SPAN>

事g与政{:(x)

四川省煤炭资源税率每吨提?SPAN lang=EN-US>1.9元胦攉K、国家税务dq日发文Q决定将四川省煤炭资源税率从0.60?SPAN lang=EN-US>/吨提高ؓ(f)2.50?SPAN lang=EN-US>/吨,此D规范了当地的煤炭产业Q每q至将增加地方E收1.6亿元?/SPAN>

发展攚w委要求增加煤甉|a(b)气生产供l工作根据采暖季xa(b)、天然气需求特点,调整产品l构Q增加资源供l,满市场需求。要求煤炭企业严格按照合同数量和质量l织供应Q提高兑现率Q切实保证居民采暖和发电(sh)用煤的供应。通知q要求,制定和完善好有序用电(sh)Ҏ(gu)Q确保重点单位、重点企业的用电(sh)?/SPAN>

p宁武煤矿发生瓦斯爆炸13人死9Z据宁武县安监局局长K生旺介绍Q当天共?SPAN lang=EN-US>30Z井,11人当场死亡,2人在送往医院q程中死亡,9人目前在医院ȝQ其?SPAN lang=EN-US>8人安全撤ȝ井。牛心会(x)煤矿是一个乡镇煤矿,手箋齐全。事故发生时Q煤矿正在进行一个改扩徏目?

 

 

 

 



     ~?辑:(x)q帆


     ~?辑:(x)q帆
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